From trading cards and LEGO to designer toys, collecting has become a meaningful adult spending occasion. What does that tell us about identity, repeat demand, and the businesses behind the objects?
A collectible can be a tiny figure, a trading card or a set of bricks. For the person buying it, the value is often much larger than the material used to make it.
People have collected objects for centuries. What feels different today is the visibility and commercial reach of adult collecting: character releases become cultural moments, trading-card shops become meeting places, and building sets compete for time and discretionary spending alongside other forms of entertainment.
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In the US, toy sales for recipients aged 18 and above grew 25% in the first half of 2026, according to Circana. Adult-only households accounted for 55% of toy sales in its US tracking, a separate household measure. Those figures are signals of adult engagement in toys, not a measurement of Indonesia's entire collectibles market. Circana, Aug 2026 ↗
We think the more interesting question is not whether people are buying toys again. It is why owning an object can become a continuing relationship and what kind of business can earn from that relationship without relying solely on the next viral release.
There is no single collectibles industry that behaves as one market. Art and antiques, graded cards, character figures, sneakers and construction sets have different buyers, price points, supply constraints and reasons to purchase. Treating them as one business category risks overstating how transferable a trend really is.
Grand View Research estimates the broad global collectibles market at US$335.7 billion in 2026, and forecasts US$535.5 billion by 2033. Art and antiques accounted for 32.9% of its 2025 market estimate. These numbers establish the breadth of collecting, but cannot be used as the addressable market for blind boxes or trading cards alone. Grand View Research ↗
Grand View Research; broad collectibles market, not modern toys alone.
For a clearer signal of contemporary collecting, US retail toy data is useful. Circana reported a 17% increase in total US toy dollar sales in H1 2026. Within that, Games & Puzzles grew 45%, with trading cards among the drivers; Building Sets grew 22%. These are broad super categories, not pure trading-card and LEGO-only growth rates. Circana ↗
Circana; US category data, not adult-only sales by category.
Growth does not mean every release is desirable. It means there are more reasons to investigate who is buying, what happens after purchase, and whether that behavior can sustain a business.
If a collectible is judged only by its functional use, many purchases will seem irrational. A small figure may sit on a shelf. A rare card may never enter a deck. A completed LEGO set may stay untouched for years. But consumers rarely value these objects only by utility.
We see five motivations worth separating. These are an editorial framework, not five measured shares of consumer demand. A single person may collect for several reasons at once.
An object that expresses taste, interests or fandom
Distinctive design, artist credibility, display value
Belonging
Shared interests and relationships
Events, game nights, specialist retail, trading
Completion
Progress toward a set or collection
Sequenced releases, variants, long-running series
Optional resale
Perceived scarcity and possible future value
Secondary marketplaces, grading, authentication
These mechanisms matter because they imply different demand durability. Nostalgia can bring a buyer back to a childhood property. A card game can make the object part of a weekly ritual. Artistic identity can make an ordinary object feel personally meaningful. Resale expectation, by contrast, can disappear quickly when the next buyer is unwilling to pay a premium.
A collectible does not have to appreciate in price to become more valuable to the person who owns it.
Our interpretation is that collectibles often combine three consumer benefits: something to own, something to do, and something to share. Not every category offers all three. But the more genuine reasons someone has to engage with a product after buying it, the less the category has to depend on scarcity alone.
This distinction also helps explain a common mistake: mistaking the rush of a product launch for evidence of lasting loyalty. A first purchase might come from curiosity. The second requires a reason to come back.
03. Five Categories. Five Different Demand Engines.
The broad market may be growing, but collecting is not one consumer behavior with one economic outcome. We would distinguish five models by what keeps the customer engaged and where the risks accumulate.
Model
Core repeat driver
Commercial advantage
Structural risk
Designer toys
Characters, surprise, series
Reusable IP and distribution
Attention shifts between characters
Trading cards
Play, collecting, sets, events
Retail plus recurring participation
Reprints, weaker sets, aging inventory
Building sets
Creation and finished display
Activity plus ownership value
Portfolio complexity and product cost
Limited sneakers
Culture, collaborations, scarcity
High intent around selected releases
Premium compression and stock exposure
Original artist IP
Creative attachment and following
Direct relationship with an audience
Small scale, production consistency
Neverlater comparison framework.
Designer toys: the portfolio is the real story
POP MART is an instructive example. Its H1 2026 revenue increased 23.8% year over year to RMB17.17 billion.
But under the headline, the mix changed: THE MONSTERS contributed 34.7% of revenue in H1 2025 and 26.0% in H1 2026, while Twinkle Twinkle moved from 2.8% to 15.4%. THE MONSTERS revenue declined in absolute terms even as the company grew. POP MART interim results ↗
Composition shares, not profits. Source: POP MART H1 2026 results.
For a scaled IP business, one growing property can offset another losing momentum. For a small retailer that financed inventory in the wrong character, the experience can be much harsher. Brand-level growth does not ensure every product is working.
Trading cards: participation changes the economics
A card can be collected, played, swapped or displayed. These are different consumer occasions. For specialist stores, the ability to run sessions, explain the game, and help collectors navigate a release can be more defensible than simply offering unopened packs that other channels can sell too.
However, a healthy player community does not guarantee healthy stock turns. A popular set may sell quickly while a weaker one stays on the shelf. New supply or reprints can benefit entry-level players but disappoint buyers who expected a lasting shortage.
LEGO: value exists before and after ownership
LEGO's H1 2026 consumer sales grew 22%; group revenue reached DKK41.9 billion and operating profit DKK10.9 billion. These are whole-company figures across age groups, not a financial disclosure for adult collectors alone. LEGO H1 2026 ↗
Its strategic distinction is that buying creates an activity, not just an object. A set delivers time spent building, a completed display, and often a connection to a familiar interest. A consumer can enjoy the full experience even if the set never rises in resale value.
The strongest repeat purchase may come from enjoyment, not the belief that the last purchase was an investment.
Commercially, there are several ways to participate in the same hobby. Their revenue might rise together during a boom, but their margins, working capital requirements and risk exposures are not the same.
Ownership of IP offers the potential to extend a character into multiple products and channels, but requires creative consistency and continuing demand. Retail provides proximity to the buyer but exposes cash to stock selection. Events can deepen engagement but still require staffing and venue economics. Resale may depend on an entirely separate buyer willing to pay a higher price.
Business position
Revenue model
Operating metric
IP owner
Product profit, licensing
Demand across characters and releases
Specialist retailer
Product margin
Full-price sell-through and stock aging
Community operator
Event fees, related sales
Repeat attendance after event costs
Accessory brand
Value-added physical products
Delivered contribution and repeat orders
Reseller / marketplace
Spread or transaction fee
Liquidity, fees and purchase price
To illustrate the difference between markup and actual economics, imagine a collector accessory selling for Rp250,000.
With Rp120,000 in product and inbound cost, Rp20,000 packaging, Rp15,000 channel fees, Rp25,000 subsidized delivery and Rp10,000 allowances for returns, only Rp60,000 remains before customer acquisition. After Rp30,000 acquisition spending, contribution falls to Rp30,000, or 12% of sales, before fixed costs and tax.
Line item
Amount (Rp)
Revenue
250000
Product + inbound
-120000
Packaging
-20000
Fees
-15000
Delivery
-25000
Returns allowance
-10000
Customer acquisition
-30000
Contribution before fixed costs and tax
30000
Neverlater hypothetical scenario; 12% contribution margin, not real supplier economics.
The point is not that every accessory business has these costs. It is that collecting enthusiasm does not erase freight, fees, defects or the cash cost of acquiring customers. The more inventory-dependent the business, the more important the gap between a visible trend and actual full-price demand becomes.
Indonesia has visible collecting communities, established distribution for mainstream hobby products, and local creative talent. What we do not have from the public evidence in this article is a defensible national estimate of adult collectible spending. Global momentum should not be presented as a local TAM.
The strongest local cases in our research are modest but instructive. In an IDN Times interview published in May 2026, the owner of Loca Mart in Medan described how Pokémon players had begun gathering at an existing café before a more specialist retail offer took shape. This matters because the relationship preceded the shop. The interview is the operator's account, not verified store financials. IDN Times ↗
In a September 2024 RRI interview, a Jakarta card-shop operator described sales varying by release and slower-moving sets being difficult to sell, even alongside regular events. RRI, Sep 2024 ↗ This is a historical account, but it captures a recurring tension: people can love a hobby without wanting every item a retailer stocks.
Official Indonesian Pokémon releases also challenge the idea that simply providing access is enough. AKG has publicly listed entry-level booster packs and ready-to-play decks, with channels including mass retailers and e-commerce. An independent operator needs a proposition beyond ordinary availability: trusted curation, authenticity, teaching, experiences or specialist service. The original draft's dated AKG prices should be rechecked before being presented as current transaction prices.
For us, the order of operations matters. A team with access to collectors should first learn how often people return and what they actually purchase at full price. A product team should first identify what an existing solution cannot do. An artist should start with a recognizable creative world and a paying audience, not production volume.
In every route, the demand signal should come before a major inventory commitment. One busy launch event or one sold-out release can be encouraging. Neither, by itself, tells us whether the economics will repeat.
A fast-growing hobby does not automatically create an attractive business. The more useful exercise is to separate consumer affection from the economics of supplying it. Below is our operating lens for Indonesia. This is a qualitative judgment based on the cases in this article, not measured local market shares or proven investment returns.
Opportunity map: choose by your advantage, not the trend
Unit economics: why sell-through matters more than sticker markup
Consider a hypothetical specialist retailer buying 100 units at Rp150,000 each and listing them for Rp250,000. On paper, the initial unit markup looks attractive. But what happens if only 70 units move at full price and the remaining 30 require a 25% markdown?
THE OPERATOR LESSON
Unsold inventory is not merely a margin problem. It is a capital-allocation problem: every slow-moving release reduces the cash available for the next one. A store can be popular and still be short of cash.
The proof we would require before committing capital
None of these tests requires an elaborate flagship store. In fact, for a newcomer, the smaller experiment may tell us more than the bigger launch. Pop-ups, existing community venues, limited paid drops, and carefully recorded reorder behavior can all reveal whether the relationship deserves more capital.
07. Our Conviction: Build The Relationship, Not The Rush
We don't think the growth of collectibles is simply a story about adults becoming more interested in toys. The objects are an expression of something larger: how people choose to spend money on identity, interests, creativity and community.
But the distinction between emotional value and market price is essential. A collectible might become more meaningful to its owner even while its resale premium declines. A business that only works when prices rise is exposed to an outcome it cannot control.
For founders and operators, the question is therefore not just “Which collectible is trending?” It is: What does the consumer actually care about after the first purchase—and can we build a commercially sound way to serve that relationship?
That question is less exciting than predicting the next viral character. We suspect it will matter more in the long run.
Sources
Research review: October 27, 2026. Global market estimates, country-level retail measures and individual company results are not interchangeable. Consumer motivations and strategy frameworks are Neverlater interpretation unless marked otherwise. Indonesian shop examples are individual operator interviews, not audited or representative market data.
AKG Pokémon product releases (original draft source; individual page links require final editorial insertion)
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